Date of Award

2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Master of Arts (MA)

Department

Art Business

Abstract

This dissertation examines how the relationship between the size and price of paintings has evolved throughout the 21st century by analysing an up-to-date dataset of 18,821 works by 103 artists offered at auction between 2000-2025 within 3 distinct segments of the market (Blue-Chip, Contemporary and Ultra-Contemporary). The main finding is that the size elasticity differs in each of these segments. It is highest for the Blue-Chip segment (0.71), lower for the Contemporary segment (0.59) and lowest for the Ultra-Contemporary segment (0.55). Contrary to many previous results, it finds no optimal size within the range of works offered at auction. As expected, online sales from 2020 onwards are associated with smaller sizes and lower prices. Controlling for pre-sale estimates reduces the size coefficient sharply, indicating that auctioneers already capitalise the size premium in their guidance.

Further close examination of the data provides an explanation for the differences in size elasticity between segments. For Blue-Chip artists that stopped producing works prior to 2000, the average size offered at auction shows a significant reduction over the last 25 years. Given the fixed supply, this suggests that demand for Blue-Chip art is still for larger works. This is also confirmed by quantile regressions which show an increase in size elasticity at higher prices. For Contemporary artists, there is a marked increase in the sizes created after 2000, compared with before. This aligns with the results for Blue-Chip artists; bigger sizes are still sought after at the top of the market, and Contemporary artists produce bigger works to fill this demand. For Ultra-Contemporary artists, the study finds that the generation of artists emerging around 2020-2021 produce much smaller works on average, both compared to the earlier generation of such artists that boomed around 2014 and also smaller than the post-2000 production of the top Contemporary artists. This is consistent with a change in the collector base which in turn might suggest a change in the market attitude to size going forward.

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